My New Blog

Real Estate Inheritance of a Home, requires the property to be Appraised by an Independent Appraiser to value the home as of Date of Death of a Decedent or the current Market Value to distribute a property value to the heirs. 

Sometimes heirs forget to reappraise a property after a death in the family and surviving spouse does need to have the property reappraised for local county taxation.

 As an appraiser, sometimes I have to value what a property was worth up to twenty years ago to assist homeowners and heirs that may have forgotten to update an estate when someone has passed.

 Or the property is appraised in the current market for heirs to figure out what to do with the property. Some properties are sold and the proceeds are divided among the heirs other times these inherited properties can become excellent rental income properties with positive cash flow if free and clear of a mortgage.

Local rents in many places have increased exponentially over the years, so the Highest and Best Use of the property needs to be determined to help heirs make a good decision with these properties with respect to monthly rental income or as a list sale price for the real estate market.

My appraisal reports include MLS Sales Data which is downloaded from the MLS and exported into 8-11 Statistical Charts and Scatter Graphs to show Market Conditions whether in a Retrospective Appraisal Report or in a Current Market Report.

Areas covered include Santa Cruz County, San Jose, Santa Clara and Monterey Counties.

I am available to answer the questions you may have. Just give me a call to discuss your property. 

Tom Melville , MRA, MNAA
California Certified Residential Appraiser
California Real Estate Broker Owner
AR012768, DRE 00774101
Aptos, Ca 95003
831-883-0406

Ok, Today the California Association of Realtors, announced a prediction of "a 22.9 % increase in existing single family home sales totaling 327,100 units in California for 2024".

The Median Home Price in California is expected to increase by 6.2 % reaching  $860,000 in 2024.

Housing affordability is projected to remain stable and Mortgage Interest rates could reach mid 5% on 30 year fixed rate mortgages by the end of 2024 as per The California Association of Realtors Insight Forecast. 

End of 2024 year (Code) to me means during a Presidential Election Year even in the first quarter of 2024 rates should be lower with both a Refinance Market and more homes to be placed on the market when the mortgage rates drop for buyers.

Its going to be a busy market for real estate professionals and for buyers as long as the rates come down. Also consider Variable rates which stay fixed for 7 years then  adjust. All you do is refinance to another variable or fixed rate when the time comes to save money on your mortgage.

Ok so the mortgage rate predictions were 100% wrong the week ending Sept 28th 2023 for 30 year fixed rate loans by many real estate reporters as to rates not rising further. The rate rose to the highest level since 2000 landing at an average of 7.31 % according to Freddie Mac. 

I could have told you that rates would still rise, but no one asked me. Lenders typically raise mortgage lending rates all the way through the holiday season and a probably will the first 2 weeks of January 2024.

Because it is a Presidential Election Year, politicians want to beat their chests saying how wonderful it is as they take credit for normal market conditions in a Presidential Election year.

The mortgage lenders who take off early during the holiday season for Tahiti and Bora Bora will be having huge drunken parties on the beach until after New Years Day over the profits made from mortgage lending in 2023.

After January and February of 2024 Mortgage Interest Rates will fall and there will be a Refinance Boom. Once the lenders decide that there needs to be more new loans in the pipeline is when the rates will drop.

If there is a shortage of homes for sale as is the case during 2023 then lenders will not be making many purchase mortgage loans. The only solution to increase the mortgage lending market is to drop rates and have two real estate markets side by side. One market will be Refinance Mortgages and the other will be Purchase Mortgages due to the lowering of mortgage rates to tap into Home Equity Mortgages.

As long as the Market is allowed to correct itself in 2024 and no more insane money is spent by clueless government types on Climate Change, Barking Spiders and Red Legged Frog Research, the natural law to me indicates lenders will want to take advantage of home equity refinance loans due to and over supply of homes with equity.

The present interest rates in 2023 are too high claim many who have not seen multiple real estate markets since 1970 to the present. Oh, Cry me a river. I bought my first house when i was 20 years old in 1974 and the interest rate FHA was 22.5 percent. Look it up. I made two payments each month. One payment was principal and interest and the other payment was principal only written on my mortgage check. 

A 20 or 30 Year Variable interest rate loan that is fixed for 7 years is what i have chosen for years as long as there is enough equity in your home. Why would I even  consider a fixed rate home loan which is going to cost more money.

So that is my forecast for 2024. The same real estate mortgage loan activity took place in 2020 during a Presidential Election Year. Its not Rocket Science but that is the way i see the future. 

Fifty Appraisers, both residential and commercial appraisers in my local area said I was nuts during Covid when I told them to go buy a new computer and a printer to write appraisal reports. The market was on Steroids and crazy busy for real estate professionals.

All they saw and said was Doom and Gloom while I clearly saw the lenders perspective already offering cash bonuses to mortgage loan originators to join a mortgage firm in November and December prior to the refinance boom. Later I was invited to a Zoom meeting of 50 real estate professionals to explain how I knew the forecast so clearly.

Should some other attempt at a Pandemic or attack at the Financial Business Sector then all bets are off. But i dont think thats the case. Its just business as usual and the mortgage rates go up and down based on market conditions and Presidential Election Years.









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Ok, its 2023 now. I have given thought again as to the current state of market conditions concerning mortgage interest rates for the present moment and into the year 2024.

Home Mortgage Rates are slowly dropping now and this should continue to the end of 2023. Other economists have expressed higher interest rate predictions to be the norm but as long as the US does not engage in a war or have another extreme market government caused condition like the past Covid Lock Down had on business and the world, I see a brighter forecast for 2023 and 2024.

The mortgage rates could, in my opinion, be in the low 5% range or lower with Variable Mortgage Rates which may be fixed for 7 years before they adjust.

There are just too many people that want to return to work force now and the Government knows they should leave business alone so that the recovery of the economy through "Trickle Down Economics" can do what it normally does when goods and services are purchased with respect to buying and improving Real Estate.

My first Mortgage in 1974 was at a rate of 22.5 FHA and there was also an oil embargo which was similar to what was seen in the past couple of years.

 Mortgage Interest rate in 2023 will continue to fall and in 2024 the interest rates will fall again. Why, well because it will be a Presidential Election Year and the Government officials will be beating their chests again as to How Great and Wonderful They Are in taking credit for the recovery, when it was Free Market Enterprise all along doing what it does to recover on its own.

I predict 2024 will have both a stronger Market for purchasing homes and a Refinance Market with even lower rates.  Homeowners and Investors will have equity saved and the lenders will be coming out of the wood work to service and create these new loans.

 Lenders have been reducing many office staff personal at this time to reduce overall office costs but will add staff when the business picks up. Even the same goes for Silicon Valley Tech which has recently made huge adjustments to labor, but I believe the Tech Industry will think its way out of this mess and create a better mouse trap, widget or technological wonder or find blue collar jobs until they can return to Tech.

Just have to take it one day at a time to get through 2023 Market Conditions which I predict will improve toward the end of 2023. Then the economy to be getting along better in 2024 of an Election Year as election officials do not want to mess up an improving economy just before an election. Interest rates will drop again further in 2024. 

20 years ago there were 20,000 appraisers in California. Today the figure is approximately 9,500. Of this number there is approximately 4,500 Certified Residential Appraisers left in California able to appraise properties over 1 millions dollars.

The other 5,000 appraisers are trainees, licensed appraisers( 17%) and Certified General Appraiser(32%) able to complete both Commercial and Residential Properties.

A real estate appraisal today for mortgage lending purposes is 50-70 pages in length and takes about 25 office hours to just produce 1 report. Its a college term paper in my mind and no two reports are the same with MLS CMA and Statistical Charts and Scatter graphs from CMA exported data into the reports. 

Since June of 2020 to the present June 2021 most appraisers are receiving 30-40 requests a day for quotes on fees for appraisal work. 

Last year in June of 2020 I decided to only do the rush assignments and that has been my business model for the last year to the present. Most appraisal firms I know of with several appraisers are backed up 1 or 2 months worth of work. I don't work that way as all I do is the rush, where I inspect a property at noon and deliver the report in 3-4 days or less. 

Presently my rush fees are $1,800 - $3,000 for one house appraisal as all I do is the rush or the complex properties. A lot of home sales in Silicon Valley use my services and just want the report ASAP. My reports are High Quality Reports with CMA and Statistical Charts and Scatter Graphs. Home sf sizes range from 1,500 sf to 6,500 sf.

Yes I turn down about 99% of the appraisal requests per day yet I am able to complete 10-15 reports each month.

 What are my regular fees?

 I don't have any as all I do is the rush and each property is a custom quote on complexity, location and short window of time to complete the report on time.

 If I take non rush assignments then the result is my rush work would become late. It is a simple business plan which is working due to the shortage of overall appraisers in Northern California.

 I am experienced to work on high end complex properties in Silicon Valley and the local rural mountain woods locations. My work vehicle is a well used Toyota 4 Runner, 4 Wheel Drive which can get me anywhere I need to go.

So I expect this market to continue to the end of this year and on to 2023 if mortgage interest rates continue to remain low as indicated by the Fed.

If you have any needs or questions for a Real Estate Broker or an appraiser with 41 years professional experience, let me Know. Tom Melville Brea 00774101 831-883-0406 Aptos Ca. 

Real Estate has been a part of my life even before adulthood. My step father owned a Real Estate Office during the 1970's in San Diego. It was tough even then selling homes for $30K or $50K back then and it really meant something when you face a appeared in a real estate newspaper ad stating that you belonged to the millionaire Club in Real Estate after transferring One Million Dollars worth of Real Estate Transactions in One Year. Now not so much as the world has changed since then and to the present due to the Principle of Change which is a constant. 

It was tough keeping a real estate office open back then circa 1970 and now with the financial over head of running a real estate business. At the side of my parents real estate office there was a separate 400 sf room which then used as a Pinball Arcade and PackMan at the time to generate more cash to pay the rent on the building. Looking back at those times and the present as of May 2020 and the corona virus which has shuttered all types of businesses for months at a time with no income. 

Real Estate Agents are seeing that they don't have to be at an office to work in the business. The business has always been in the field as many people still say. 

I see large real estate offices with hundreds of agents today becoming obsolete as new ways to represent the public and meet the public no longer requires to meet in a real estate office.

 After 40 years in the real estate business of Brokerage, Appraisal and Consulting that I will operate from now on as a Discount Real Estate Brokerage helping homes owners with property transfers by reducing my commission on homes I list to 4.5% of the sales price. Since I work for myself my overhead costs are much lower than larger companies yet I can deliver the same sales outcomes and allow the homeowner to save on house commissions when marketing their home with me. 

As a Real Estate Broker/Certified Residential Appraiser I am experienced with high value real estate between $500K to Six Million dollar transfers so the saving of equity for sellers can be significant. 

If you would like to talk about your real estate I am available 12 hours day or more to discuss your real estate concerns. Covering Santa Cruz, Ca, Monterey Ca, San Jose and Santa Clarita. 

Tom Melville Broker
Dre 00774101
Tom Melville Properties / Melville Appraisal
831-883-0406

Prior to 2020 in November/December of 2019, I was looking at the several different market indicators that would tell me where my business and the real market would be in the next 6 months from Nov 2019.

Here is what I knew in Nov 2019.

1. The interest rates for mortgage lending were low.
2. Foreclosures were not an issue and were minimal in number.
3. There continued to be shortage of homes available for purchase.
4. There was an over supply of buyers to the markets
5. New home communities were now being built on land purchased years ago.
6. Interest rates on mortgages would drop again as it does 1st quarter of year.
7. Competition for homes with multiple bids.
8. Lenders were looking to hire and offer bonus pay for mortgage loan originators.
9. Lender were looking to hire support office staff for next surge in lending.

Yet when Covid 19 was effecting real estate, so many real estate professionals, including appraisers claimed there would be doom and gloom in the market place. Over 50 real estate appraisers in nearby counties forecast the market was going to go down or be flat for a long time. None of that is what i saw in my research and my forecast of 2020. 

Looking at the above market metrics i updated office equipment and told the appraisers i knew the market would be on steroids and an upward market. Still many appraisers thought i was nuts. 

Having seen and been involved every different California market in real estate since 1980 to the present allowed me to clearly see the present moment in 12/2019. 

Only recently I was asked to explain my forecast in 2019 on a Zoom Meeting to 50 appraisers who called the 2020 forecast wrong.

 I listed and explained the simple real estate metrics above. To me it was a no brainer as it was all clear to myself the forecast of 2020. 

If you have thoughts or questions about current real estate matters call me to discuss your thoughts or concerns. 

Tom Melville 
Broker, Certified Residential Appraisal
Dre 00774101 
831-883-0406

Licensed Real Estate Professional in California since 1980 to the present.