My New Blog

Prior to 2020 in November/December of 2019, I was looking at the several different market indicators that would tell me where my business and the real market would be in the next 6 months from Nov 2019.

Here is what I knew in Nov 2019.

1. The interest rates for mortgage lending were low.
2. Foreclosures were not an issue and were minimal in number.
3. There continued to be shortage of homes available for purchase.
4. There was an over supply of buyers to the markets
5. New home communities were now being built on land purchased years ago.
6. Interest rates on mortgages would drop again as it does 1st quarter of year.
7. Competition for homes with multiple bids.
8. Lenders were looking to hire and offer bonus pay for mortgage loan originators.
9. Lender were looking to hire support office staff for next surge in lending.

Yet when Covid 19 was effecting real estate, so many real estate professionals, including appraisers claimed there would be doom and gloom in the market place. Over 50 real estate appraisers in nearby counties forecast the market was going to go down or be flat for a long time. None of that is what i saw in my research and my forecast of 2020. 

Looking at the above market metrics i updated office equipment and told the appraisers i knew the market would be on steroids and an upward market. Still many appraisers thought i was nuts. 

Having seen and been involved every different California market in real estate since 1980 to the present allowed me to clearly see the present moment in 12/2019. 

Only recently I was asked to explain my forecast in 2019 on a Zoom Meeting to 50 appraisers who called the 2020 forecast wrong.

 I listed and explained the simple real estate metrics above. To me it was a no brainer as it was all clear to myself the forecast of 2020. 

If you have thoughts or questions about current real estate matters call me to discuss your thoughts or concerns. 

Tom Melville 
Broker, Certified Residential Appraisal
Dre 00774101 
831-883-0406

Licensed Real Estate Professional in California since 1980 to the present.

04/12/2020

Real Estate Appraisal has always been an Essential Service to the Financial Sector.

 During the present California Shelter in Place rules for the public, it takes a minimum of Twenty Percent of all Essential Business to remain open to keep the economy of a city  moving forward. 

Real Estate Appraisers are presently making home inspections using Personal Protection Equipment at a minimum of mask, gloves and booties if requested by the home owner. 

There are several guidelines on the present Shelter in Place that are followed by Appraisal Associations, Realtor Associations both National Association of Realtors and the California Association of Realtors and Real Estate Property Management Companies as to proceed and inspect a home. 

Lenders are required to have a full interior appraisal inspection to assist home owners with cash out refinance. It is possible to have an exterior only appraisal of your home, yet the lenders prefer interior inspections to insure the value of the property being appraised.

 Even during the California 1989 Earthquakes and other large brush fires in summer, appraisers were ordered out to the field to inspect homes to see the extent of damage.

 This current Shelter in Place time is busy for appraisers as with the low refinance interest rates, many home owners are using equity in their homes to get through this period of time.

If you need a real estate professional to appraise your property, then give me a call. Or if you need to consider listing or consultation as to listing a property on the MLS, I cover that service as well.

Tom Melville, MRA, MNAA
Real Estate Appraiser, California Real Estate Broker/ Owner
Melville Appraisal, Tom Melville Properties
AR012768, DRE# 00774101
831-883-0406