My New Blog

Prior to 2020 in November/December of 2019, I was looking at the several different market indicators that would tell me where my business and the real market would be in the next 6 months from Nov 2019.

Here is what I knew in Nov 2019.

1. The interest rates for mortgage lending were low.
2. Foreclosures were not an issue and were minimal in number.
3. There continued to be shortage of homes available for purchase.
4. There was an over supply of buyers to the markets
5. New home communities were now being built on land purchased years ago.
6. Interest rates on mortgages would drop again as it does 1st quarter of year.
7. Competition for homes with multiple bids.
8. Lenders were looking to hire and offer bonus pay for mortgage loan originators.
9. Lender were looking to hire support office staff for next surge in lending.

Yet when Covid 19 was effecting real estate, so many real estate professionals, including appraisers claimed there would be doom and gloom in the market place. Over 50 real estate appraisers in nearby counties forecast the market was going to go down or be flat for a long time. None of that is what i saw in my research and my forecast of 2020. 

Looking at the above market metrics i updated office equipment and told the appraisers i knew the market would be on steroids and an upward market. Still many appraisers thought i was nuts. 

Having seen and been involved every different California market in real estate since 1980 to the present allowed me to clearly see the present moment in 12/2019. 

Only recently I was asked to explain my forecast in 2019 on a Zoom Meeting to 50 appraisers who called the 2020 forecast wrong.

 I listed and explained the simple real estate metrics above. To me it was a no brainer as it was all clear to myself the forecast of 2020. 

If you have thoughts or questions about current real estate matters call me to discuss your thoughts or concerns. 

Tom Melville 
Broker, Certified Residential Appraisal
Dre 00774101 
831-883-0406

Licensed Real Estate Professional in California since 1980 to the present.